-by Peter Francese

New Hampshire is now the nation’s fifth-oldest state with a new record high median age of almost 40 years — more than three years above the national median.  Some perspective:  Back in 1990, our state was among the younger states.  It was the 31st oldest state, with a median age of 32.7 years — below the 32.8 years U.S. median.  But we are not the only ones aging fast.  The six New England states are now all among the 10 oldest states in the nation by this measure.

                       Rank 2007        State                   2007 Median age   

                              1                Maine                         41.6           

                              2                Vermont                     40.8

                              3                West Virginia              40.4

                              4                Florida                        39.9

                              5                New Hampshire        39.8

                                                United States             36.6

Before we get to what this rapid aging means for New Hampshire REALTORS®, here are some more details from these new estimates.
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-by Peter Francese

The first quarter 2008 home sales data for New Hampshire look about as bad as it gets. (Please see county-by-county home sales table below.)  Fortunately, that awful three-month period is behind, us and there are reasons to think that the psychology of home buyers in our state may improve in the coming months.
          
In the future, Realtors will look back on this period with awe that our housing market could have deteriorated so fast and so far.  It did so in large part because of the disintegration of the highly leveraged and derivative addicted financial sector.  That unprecedented and for the most part unforeseen collapse meant that any potential home buyer had good reasons to hold off until the situation at least stabilized. 
    
Well, now the financial news is full of stories about emerging inflation, tight credit and a soft job market.  The average consumer has little reason to be optimistic about their near-term prospects.  But not all consumer households or all states are average.  Places and people with an above-average and growing incomes are more likely to see beyond the current bad news and be more optimistic about the future.

New Hampshire is one of those places.  Chart I below shows how our state differs from the nation in terms of household income for three important age and income categories.  In terms of the all household median income, New Hampshire, at nearly $60,000, is 123 percent of the United States median of $48,500, according to the latest (2006) Census Bureau American Community Survey.

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-by Peter Francese

There’s no lipstick big enough to put on this ugly bear market.  During the past two months we’ve had the most miserable weather, darkest economic news and an awful real estate market.  The stock market swoon, massive credit market problems, and falling consumer confidence have produced a truly extraordinary decline in real estate transactions throughout our state as well as the nation.
 
 
        
Sales volume during the first two months of this year for all New Hampshire properties was down 30 percent, residential was off 28 percent and condominium sales volume was 34 percent below the same period last year. It doesn’t get much worse than that.  Median residential home prices dropped just 7.5 percent despite a 24 percent drop in units sold while condominium median selling price edged down only 2.4 percent, even though units sold were off 24 percent. 
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-by Peter Francese

That’s the big question. Even the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, who has access to databases we can only dream about, says he doesn’t know.  Perhaps it’s vain of us mere mortals to even ask the question.  But we’re going to, anyway.
 
 
As to when we will see the bottom of the market, we are probably awfully close to it right now. 
 

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It’s time for renewing and preparing,
not gloom and doom
-by Peter Francese   JANUARY 2007

The robust economy we have come to depend on is letting us down, and loose talk about recession is on every news channel.  And the bad news just keeps coming.  Mortgage lenders are disappearing, Wall Street’s in a deep funk, and worst of all consumers are holding back on their spending. 
          
The best scenario that I have seen suggests that sometime around June or July of this year, the national economy may start to recover from the above mentioned maladies and more consumers will be in a house buying mood.  As much as we might like to, we can’t just hide until these grim times are over.  But we can be much better prepared for when more normal times return, as they surely will.
  
   
Experience from past economic downturns strongly suggests that the organizations in the best position to prosper when things turn around are those that use this time of slow sales to update and upgrade their websites as well as their other marketing efforts, so as to be ready when the customers return.    (more…)

Fearful Times Call For Fresh Thinking
-by Peter Francese  Dec 2007

The national headlines could hardly be scarier: “Credit crunch!” “Widespread foreclosures!” “Plunging home values!”  It’s enough to make even the most cool-headed REALTOR® a trifle anxious.  And then the word “recession” is thrown around just to frighten us some more.
  
 
The next time you hear those phrases, please keep this in mind:  It’s always the most frightening leads that get the biggest TV and print audiences – something national media firms need to survive in their hyper-competitive industry.We know that New Hampshire real estate and economic conditions are much better than other parts of the nation, but that reassuring story has trouble competing with those that forecast imminent doom.  To be fair, we certainly have economic issues to be concerned about, but succumbing to fear won’t help us solve them. 

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