What does it mean that we are now the nation’s fifth oldest state?
-by Peter Francese
New Hampshire is now the nation’s fifth-oldest state with a new record high median age of almost 40 years — more than three years above the national median. Some perspective: Back in 1990, our state was among the younger states. It was the 31st oldest state, with a median age of 32.7 years — below the 32.8 years U.S. median. But we are not the only ones aging fast. The six New England states are now all among the 10 oldest states in the nation by this measure.
Rank 2007 State 2007 Median age
1 Maine 41.6
2 Vermont 40.8
3 West Virginia 40.4
4 Florida 39.9
5 New Hampshire 39.8
United States 36.6
Before we get to what this rapid aging means for New Hampshire REALTORS®, here are some more details from these new estimates.
More households in New Hampshire are likely to decide later this spring or summer that now is the time to buy.
Our state leads the region in age 65-plus growth. New Hampshire’s elderly population grew by 17,800 persons from 2000 to 2007, a 12 percent rate of increase. This compares to an age 65-plus growth of just 13,800 in all the other New England states combined (a 0.8 percent rise). Nationwide, those age 65-plus have increased a bit over 8 percent since 2000.
There was also a 50,000 person increase in New Hampshire’s 55 to 64 population (up 46 percent) and a 36,000 person rise in the age 45 to 54 (up 20 percent). But at the same time, the number of children under age 18 dropped by 11,000 (a 4 percent decline) to 298,000 — their lowest level since 1997. And a big part of the state’s younger working age 25 to 44 population (and those kids’ parents) also shrank. It declined 7.5 percent, a loss of over 28,000 potential workers since 2000. (Please see chart below.)
Chart I: NH age shifts 2000-2007 versus other New England states
Source: Census Bureau estimates
New Hampshire’s total population reached 1,315,800 in 2007, a 6.5 percent increase since the last census in 2000. But the state’s annual growth rate slipped to just 0.3 percent from mid-2006 to mid-2007, somewhat above the 0.2 percent resident growth for the other New England states, but far below the 1.0 percent national growth rate.
What does all this mean for REALTORS® in light of today’s market conditions? The answer lies partly in the most recent residential listing and home sales data from NNEREN, which shows about 15,800 homes listed for sale statewide, only slightly above the 15,600 listed last year at this time. But during April, a total of about 1,100 homes sold compared to 1,470 in April of last year — a 25 percent drop. Year to date, some 2,572 residential units were sold, 24 percent below the same period last year.
The huge inventory buildup that’s been occurring in other parts of the nation appears not to be happening here, but what we lack are enough home buyers. And the shifting age structure described above, and in Chart I, is a big part of that lack.
There are not enough home buyers today in part because a very high percentage of the larger and fast growing older populations in New Hampshire are already homeowners. And in today’s market uncertainty, selling one home to buy another can seem a daunting task. Among the top growth ages, 55 to 64, for example, 85 percent of households are homeowners, as are 81 percent of the largest group: 45- to 54-year-olds.
But within the smaller, but so far not growing, age group 25 to 34, only about half are homeowners. And a little over two-thirds of 35- to 44-year-olds are homeowners. I estimate that there may be as many as 60,000 potential new homeowners among these two younger age groups, spanning 25 to 44 years old, compared to just 37,000 in the larger and older two groups, covering 45 to 64 years old.
Finding starter homes for 25- to 44-year-old families could give a big boost to home sales in New Hampshire. That would appear at first to be an easier than usual task, because these first-time buyers don’t have to find a buyer for their present home. But in reality, it will probably be more difficult partly because mortgage lenders are not as able or as eager to lend as they have been in recent years.
Considering the double-digit declines in home sales during the first four months of this year over last year, combined with the high inventory of unsold homes, it is quite surprising how little the median sale price of residential units has declined — an average of only 8 percent statewide. In some of the state’s more rural counties, however, the double-digit price declines have cut deeply into homeowner equity.
Nevertheless, in every county except Rockingham, half the residential units sold in the past four months cost the new owner $250,000 or less, which is a reasonably affordable home for a family or individual with an annual income of around $65,000, which is pretty close to the statewide median household income.
The nearly 800 condominiums sold statewide during the first four months of this year was 39 percent fewer than the 1,300 sold in same period last year, but the median sales price of $182,000 was just 3 percent lower than last year.
January -April 2008 NH Residential Sales (non-condominium)
| County | Units sold | % change 2007-08 | Median Price | % change 2007-08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belknap | 149 | -25% | $214,900 | -2% |
| Carroll | 166 | -14% | $192,500 | -13% |
| Cheshire | 144 | -27% | $178,750 | -14% |
| Coos | 76 | -28% | $107,000 | -2% |
| Grafton | 157 | -29% | 200,000 | -5% |
| Hillsborough | 694 | -26% | $250,000 | -9% |
| Merrimack | 251 | -34% | $221,700 | -11% |
| Rockingham | 606 | -14% | $287,000 | -7% |
| Strafford | 231 | -31% | $218,000 | -11% |
| Sullivan | 98 | -13% | $159,950 | -14% |
| Statewide | 2,572 | -24% | $235,000 | -8% |
Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNEREN). Statistics are based on information from NNEREN for the respective periods shown for the respective regions in the State of New Hampshire or all towns in the State of New Hampshire. All analysis and commentary related to the statistics is that of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS® and not that of NNEREN.
Reprinted with the permission of Peter Francese and the NHAR.
